Trump’s Trade War Threatens Europe’s Food Supply – Food Crisis and Farming at Risk in 2025
Food Crisis and Farming at Risk in 2025
Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy has triggered the largest stock market crash since the pandemic, but the consequences don’t stop at Wall Street. For Sweden and the EU, a trade war now threatens something even more fundamental: our food.
This is no longer a dispute between two nations. Trump’s broad tariffs on China, the EU, the UK, Canada and others have set off a global domino effect. At the center of it all is global food trade – and the effects will be felt faster than many expect.
⏰️ Within 1 Month
The First Shocks to Food Prices Already during April and May, we can expect price adjustments in Swedish stores. Not because products are running out – but because the market is reacting to uncertainty.
Imported goods from the US directly affected:
- Soybeans and corn: Key in animal feed. If prices spike, the entire meat industry is affected.
- Beef and chicken: The US is a major player globally. Prices rise as trade slows.
- Peanuts and almonds: The US dominates global exports.
- Whiskey and wine: Past trade conflicts show how quickly these become tariff targets.
Exports (EU → USA):
- Cheese, chocolate, wine: EU specialties at risk of retaliation.
- Processed foods: Everything from biscuits to ready meals may face hurdles.
🗓️ Within 6 Months:
Chain Reactions in Production and Feed As feed prices rise, the effects ripple through the food chain. Meat, eggs and dairy become more expensive to produce.
- Imports of US ingredients like corn oil, corn syrup and wheat protein are halted or get more expensive.
- Global transport costs increase.
- Fresh produce delayed at borders forces food companies to source locally – at a higher cost.
On the export side, EU agriculture suffers. Losing the US market for cheese, wine and butter creates domestic overproduction. This pushes prices down – but not in a healthy way.
🌾 Within 12 Months
Deep Scars in Agriculture and a Dairy Crisis Looms By winter 2025/2026, Europe faces the full consequences of a growing season shaped by tariffs and import issues. This is no longer about short-term price hikes – it’s about structural damage.
Expected issues:
More expensive or missing fertilizer Russia is one of the world’s largest fertilizer exporters, including nitrogen and phosphorus-based products. Sanctions or trade disruptions could choke this supply. Result: smaller harvests, lower quality crops – and higher prices for bread, vegetables and more.
⛽️ Higher Fuel and Equipment Costs for Farming – A Chain Reaction We Can’t Ignore A global trade war affects not only what we grow – but how we grow it. Two vital cost drivers for farmers are fuel and machinery. Both risk significant price hikes within a year.
🔥 Fuel – When Diesel Costs Hit Farmers Hard
- EU tractors and harvesters are highly diesel-dependent.
- Market anxiety pushes oil prices up – directly raising diesel costs at the pump.
- A weaker euro against the dollar worsens this, as oil is traded in USD.
- Sanctions on Russia + US tariffs reduce refined fuel availability, creating volatility.
🔧 Machinery – More Expensive and Harder to Maintain
- Modern farm equipment relies on global supply chains:
- Electronics from China
- Hydraulics from the US
- Engines from Germany or Japan
- Tariffs, restrictions or shipping issues make both new machines and spare parts more costly and harder to source.
- Breakdowns during key times like planting or harvest can be disastrous.
📉 Economic Impact on Farming
- Higher fuel and equipment costs raise the cost per hectare.
- This leads to:
- Higher food prices (if the market allows it)
- Or lower farm profitability (which threatens the entire food chain)
Dairy Industry at Risk
- If the EU can’t export its surplus dairy, local prices fall.
- This seems like good news for consumers – but it hurts small producers.
- Long-term, this threatens domestic supply and rural farming viability.
❌ Final Conclusion: A Trade War We Can’t Afford – And That May Backfire
What started as political posturing in the US is rapidly becoming a global crisis. Trade flows are disrupted, prices are climbing, and entire sectors are at risk – all before any negotiations have taken place. This isn’t just about tariffs. It’s about food security, supply chains, and political stability.
🇪🇺 What Can Individual EU Countries Do?
Protect domestic agriculture:
- Targeted support for small farms, especially dairy and grain producers.
- Temporary tax relief or subsidies for rising input costs.
- Ensure liquidity via low-interest loans or support packages.
Build new trade pathways:
- Strengthen ties with Canada, Latin America, Asia and Africa.
- Invest in domestic fertilizer production and sustainable methods.
Increase preparedness:
- Stockpile essentials like grain, feed, and fertilizer.
- Develop an EU-wide food supply strategy, similar to energy planning.
🇺🇸 What Is Trump Actually After?
🎯 1. Domestic Political Pressure
- Rising inflation, job losses in manufacturing, and trade deficits put Trump under pressure.
- Tariffs are a way to show action and please his base.
🧲 2. Forcing Better Trade Deals
- A classic “America First” tactic: create a crisis to extract concessions.
- By pushing for maximum disruption, Trump hopes rivals will fold.
🏣 3. Favoring U.S. Manufacturing and Farming
- In theory, tariffs boost demand for American-made goods.
- But U.S. agriculture relies heavily on exports – and could be hit first by retaliation.
🔀 But This Could Backfire
- American farmers lose major markets (EU, China, Japan).
- U.S. consumers face price hikes.
- Key industries lack parts, machines, and fertilizers.
- Within a year, the U.S. may face the same food and supply chain crisis as the EU – but with fewer safety nets.
🛡️ Final Word
This Is Bigger Than Politics This is no longer about winners and losers. In the food sector, everyone loses in chaos.
- Europe must act fast and smart – not just with support, but with strategic alliances.
- The U.S. needs to look beyond short-term headlines.
- Voters must realize: trade wars are not strength. They are expensive food, empty shelves, and broken supply chains.
