On February 5, 2025, Thailand decided to cut off electricity, fuel, and internet supplies to five strategically important areas in Myanmar, located along the border between the two countries. The decision was made by Thailand’s National Security Council and was justified by the fact that these areas host extensive online fraud centers and criminal activities, which are considered a security threat to Thailand and the region.

The affected areas include Myawaddy, Payathonzu, and Tachileik, which are adjacent to the Thai cities of Mae Sot, Sangkhlaburi, and Chiang Rai. Electricity to these regions previously generated about 50 million baht in revenue per month for Thailand, but the shutdown is seen as a necessary measure to combat organized crime.

Myanmar’s Response

So far, Myanmar has not officially responded to Thailand’s actions, but there is growing concern that the military junta in Myanmar may take countermeasures. One of the biggest threats is that Myanmar may limit gas exports to Thailand, which could impact Thailand’s electricity production and lead to higher energy prices. Myanmar exports a significant portion of its natural gas to Thailand via pipelines, and a shutdown would be a strong political statement.

Possible Consequences and Risks

1. Increased instability at the border

• The affected areas in Myanmar are partly controlled by armed groups and criminal networks. Cutting off electricity and internet access could lead to violent conflicts and escalating unrest.
• The Thai military may be forced to strengthen its border patrols, which could further heighten tensions.

2. Diplomatic strain between Thailand and Myanmar

• Myanmar may see Thailand’s actions as a provocation, potentially worsening relations between the two countries.
• If Myanmar cuts gas exports, this could weaken Thailand’s energy supply and create economic issues.

3. Humanitarian crisis and refugee flows

• The civilian population in the affected regions will struggle without electricity for healthcare, schools, and essential services.
• This could lead to an increase in refugees trying to enter Thailand, placing additional strain on Thai authorities.

4. Risk of cyberattacks or retaliatory actions

• The criminal networks affected by the shutdown could retaliate through cyberattacks targeting Thai government institutions and businesses.
• There is also a risk of bribery attempts against Thai officials to regain access to electricity and internet services.

International Impact

This situation unfolds as China actively works to combat online fraud targeting Chinese citizens, many of which operate out of Myanmar. Thailand’s decision can therefore be seen as an effort to appease China, which has previously criticized these criminal networks.

At the same time, Myanmar might seek support from other countries like Russia or India to counter Thailand’s influence. If tensions rise further, this could become a long-term conflict involving more regional players.

Future Developments

It remains to be seen whether Thailand will stand firm on its decision or attempt to negotiate with Myanmar to avoid economic and diplomatic fallout. The biggest question is how Myanmar will respond and whether this could lead to an energy crisis in Thailand.

If the conflict escalates, ASEAN or the United Nations may need to step in to mediate between the two countries.

Conclusion

Thailand’s power cutoff of Myanmar’s border regions marks a significant turning point in the regional fight against organized crime. However, the measure comes with substantial risks, including diplomatic conflicts, economic repercussions, and a potential humanitarian crisis. The situation is rapidly evolving, and developments must be closely monitored in the coming weeks.