Trump Wins the 2024 Presidential Election: What Does This Mean for the USA and the World?

On November 5, 2024, the United States held its presidential election, with the Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump running against the Democrat Kamala Harris. After an intense and controversial campaign, preliminary results point to a victory for Trump, who has secured the necessary electoral votes in several key swing states.

This election has been marked by a polarized political climate, high voter turnout, and important questions regarding the future of the USA and its role in the world. A Trump victory signals potential changes in both domestic policies and international relations, with significant economic impacts for both the USA and the world.

The Campaign and Election Day

The 2024 presidential campaign was intense, focusing on issues like economic growth, inflation, and America’s global role. With a strong emphasis on nationalism and protectionism, Trump campaigned with the message of restoring “America First” and protecting American jobs. Harris, on the other hand, emphasized strengthening alliances and promoting a more inclusive domestic policy.

Election Day saw a record number of voters, with over 100 million Americans believed to have participated, representing about 60% of eligible voters. Trump surprisingly won in states like Georgia and North Carolina, indicating a shift in voter priorities. Many voters cited the economy and crime as top issues, which may have benefited Trump.

Future Expectations: Potential Focus Areas of a Trump Administration

If Trump is officially declared the winner, his second term will likely feature several controversial decisions. His administration may focus on:

1. Increasing Trade Barriers: Trump has openly stated his intent to impose new tariffs, especially on Chinese goods. These measures could raise costs for American consumers and businesses, with the risk of sparking new trade conflicts. Protectionist actions, however, could have consequences for the USA’s export-dependent sectors.
2. Reducing Bureaucracy: Trump’s previous policies aimed at reducing regulations in areas like environmental and labor markets to promote growth. While these reforms could stimulate economic activity, they also risk negative impacts on the environment and working conditions.
3. Implementing Economic Stimulus: To drive growth and counter inflation, Trump might consider new stimulus measures, particularly through tax cuts. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has hinted at potential interest rate hikes to keep inflation in check.
4. Continuing “America First” Policy: This entails a focus on domestic issues like reduced immigration, increased military spending, and a renewed emphasis on border protection. Trump’s stance on international issues may downplay the USA’s engagement in multilateral organizations, affecting relationships with both allies and adversaries.

Economic Consequences: USA and Internationally

Effects on the USA’s Economy

According to preliminary analyses, Trump’s economic agenda could create mixed effects in the USA:

• Higher Inflation: His tariff proposals risk raising costs on imported goods, increasing inflation. The Federal Reserve has already signaled that it might raise rates in response.
• Rising National Debt: According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, his policies could increase the U.S. national debt by $7.5 trillion by 2035, affecting long-term economic stability.
• Impact on the Job Market: Protectionist measures may temporarily benefit certain industries, but in the long run, companies may face higher costs, particularly in the tech and manufacturing sectors.

Global Economic Consequences

Trump’s protectionist policies could strain the global economy:

• Weakened International Trade Relations: Increased tariffs and trade wars with countries like China and the EU could disrupt global supply chains and impact economic growth. Many international stakeholders fear that U.S. protectionism may lead to reduced global trade.
• Financial Market Volatility: Uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policy under Trump could create volatility in global financial markets. Sectors like defense and traditional energy may benefit, while renewable energy and technology sectors could face challenges.
• Consequences for Europe and Sweden: Sweden, which relies heavily on exports, may be impacted by changes in U.S. trade policy. Increased tariffs could be problematic for Swedish companies exporting goods to the U.S., especially in the automotive and industrial sectors. A decline in U.S. imports may also reduce demand for Swedish exports, which could negatively affect the Swedish economy.

Geopolitical Implications

A new Trump administration could significantly impact international relations:

• Relations with Allies: During his first term, Trump was criticized for weakening ties with NATO and several European countries. If Trump becomes president again, this could create uncertainty about the USA’s role as a security guarantor for Europe.
• Asia-Pacific Region: Trump had a tenuous and sometimes divided relationship with Asia during his first term, especially with China and North Korea. A second term could mean increased tensions in the region, which could impact global stability.

Conclusion

A Trump victory signifies a clear shift in the U.S. economic and international direction. His protectionist policies and nationalist agenda may lead to increased tensions with international actors and negatively impact both the U.S. and global economies. At the same time, this course may strengthen certain American sectors and temporarily benefit the domestic job market.

The long-term effects of Trump’s economic policies remain uncertain. With a growing budget deficit and potential trade conflicts, the U.S. and the world face a period of economic and geopolitical upheaval. This makes the 2024 election crucial not only for the future of the USA but also for the global economy and world politics.

Sources:

• Nyheter24
• Kommerskollegium
• Capital Economics
• Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
• Dagens PS
• IG Markets

Donald Trump – Facts

• Full Name: Donald John Trump
• Born: June 14, 1946
• Birthplace: Queens, New York, USA
• Profession: Businessman, TV personality, politician
• Political Party: Republican
• Previous Presidency: 2017–2021, and now the projected winner of the 2024 presidential election

Political Priorities

• America First: Focuses on domestic interests, protecting American jobs, and reducing dependency on imports.
• Trade Policy: Protectionist, with increased tariffs on imports, particularly from China.
• Immigration Policy: Stricter immigration laws and strengthened border controls.
• Military Budget: Increased defense spending with an emphasis on U.S. independence in security matters.

Controversies and Criticism

• International Relations: Criticized for weakening relationships with traditional allies, such as NATO.
• Environmental Policy: Withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and reduced environmental regulations to favor industry.
• Domestic Policy: Notable criticism for handling social issues and for the divisive tone in public discourse.

Personal Life

• Family: Married to Melania Trump, with five children from three marriages.
• Net Worth: Approximately $2.5 billion (according to Forbes 2023).
• Interests: Golf, real estate ventures, TV appearances.